“The Godfather Part 4”?
What are we to make of the astonishing argument in the Oval Office?
My four decades of study and experience in international relations did not prepare me for watching those excruciating moments unfold.
Instead, I have been rewatching the famous 1972 movie “The Godfather” for lessons in how business is now done in Washington DC. The film begins in 1945 with the “Don”, played by Marlon Brando, sitting in his office holding court as his henchmen pledge their allegiance to him. Everything is transactional with every deed being rewarded or punished in accordance with their gangster code. Loyalty is complete – especially because the consequence of disloyalty is death. Loyalty is demonstrated by absolute obedience, fawning gratitude and obsequiousness.
Trump is the rightful heir to such nefarious ways of doing business. It is clear that he has personally absorbed the power of the most country in the world into his flabby frame. He expects his will to be done.
Zelensky has led his country for three years against the illegal Russian invasion. Before he entered the political scene, Crimea was stolen by Russia in 2014 and eastern Ukraine was infiltrated by Russian special forces. In 2022 the full-scale invasion began and Putin’s generals promised him victory within three days. But Zelensky and his armed forces did not turn and run – they fought back!
China, Iran and North Korea provide support to Russia. Until very recently, the US has led the countries of the free world in providing a trickle of military support to Ukraine. But don’t forget that it was the Ukrainian people who did the fighting and dying.
Meanwhile the Third World/Global South/BRICS groupings have generally tried to sit on the fence and hedged their bets in case the wind changed in favour of the autocratic countries.
You may remember that back in 2019, Zelensky refused to be shaken down when Trump demanded his support against Biden. The infamous “perfect phone call” led to Trump’s first impeachment – for which Trump has never forgiven Zelensky.
On the other hand, Trump has always had outsized respect for Putin – who has transformed Russia from the broken Soviet Union into the gangster state he now leads as the richest man in the world. Putin’s enemies are poisoned, defenestrated or die in air crashes. Putin is the man that Trump admires and wants to emulate. During his first term Trump preferred Russian promises to US intelligence assessments. Only days ago, Trump told the British prime minister, Starmer, that Putin will abide by a ceasefire in Ukraine. And, in the Oval Office, Trump reminded Zelensky of his close relationship with Putin “we had to go through the Russian hoax together”.
As we saw with Biden before him, Trump is increasingly showing his age – much like the Don in The Godfather – and he relies on others to get things done. He speaks more slowly and relies on stunts like jokes and dancing to maintain the appearance of youth. He is now surrounded by a coterie of cynical younger men such as Vance and Musk who demonstrate their loyalty through their genuflections and actions. Vance’s role in the shakedown on Friday was – on cue from Trump – to attack Zelensky for his lack of gratitude. That gratitude was required in order to facilitate an economic agreement with the US that was unfavourable for Ukraine but was being offered on a take-it-or-leave-it basis. The unspoken threat was that if Ukraine didn’t accede to the US “deal” then Russia would seize the whole country.
Zelensky is in a very difficult position and it is reasonable for him to want a security guarantee for the free parts of his country against further Russian invasions – before he signs away his economic resources to the US.
Trump and his loyal supporters apparently believe that Putin would respect some sort of “ceasefire” and stop invading Ukraine. This is despite the fact that Putin has broken every other agreement so far!
Zelensky (speaking in his best broken English) tried to calmly point out to Trump that Putin has a track record of aggression. Criticism of Putin was too much for Trump. After a tag-team of combined scolding of Zelensky from Vance and Trump, the meeting was abruptly ended.
The assembled journalists were left shocked – except perhaps the Russian journalist from TASS who had “mistakenly” been let into the Oval Office. And if anyone believes that a Russian can enter the Oval Office by mistake, then I have a Harbour Bridge to sell you!
The meeting was a shakedown which went wrong – Zelensky was supposed to crack under pressure. Trump and his team had completely miscalculated and he didn’t get his “deal”.
The only winners were Putin and the other autocrats who have been gloating at the huge cracks now opening in the western alliance.
Zelensky flew back to London and received the support of the leaders of the free world who have not fallen into line with the new way that the US conducts mafia-style international relations.
Don’t fall for the line that it is pointless to stand up to dictators like Putin. The free world stood up to Hitler’s Germany from 1939 to 1941 (with only a trickle of help from the US).
Ukraine can do it now – Slava Ukraini
AUSTRALIA DAY - 26th January 2025
Today is “Australia Day” – Australia’s national day.
It marks the raising of the British flag at Sydney Cove on the 26th of January 1788, and the establishment of the first European permanent settlement.
Eighteen years earlier, our country had been claimed by the British explorer Captain James Cook on the 1st of January 1770. He had named the eastern half of the continent “New South Wales”.
The settlers who raised the flag at Sydney Cove 237 years ago were led by Captain Arthur Phillip and he was appointed the first Governor of New South Wales.
Governor Phillip commanded the “First Fleet” of eleven ships which had taken 250 days to sail around from Portsmouth in England. The eleven ships consisted of two small warships of the Royal Navy, HMS Sirius and HMAT Supply; six convict transports, Alexander, Charlotte, Friendship, Lady Penrhyn, Prince of Wales and Scarborough; and three storeships, Borrowdale, Fishburn and Golden Grove.
The ships contained 565 officers, sailors and marines; 54 wives and children; and 1,030 convicts (of whom 767 were male, 222 were female and 41 were children). The new settlement also had seven horses, seven cattle, 29 sheep and 74 pigs.
The fleet had first landed on the 20th of January at Botany Bay, which is to the south. But Phillip didn’t like the area and his further explorations discovered the magnificent harbour where the city of Sydney would later develop.
Two French ships were following the First Fleet but fortunately Governor Phillip’s forces were sufficient to deter them from causing any trouble and they departed peacefully.
Phillip also frequently met with the indigenous people who followed a paleolithic way of life in the area. Phillip required that the colonists treat the indigenous people with respect and some of them were recruited as native guides. The manly appearance of their warriors led to the naming of the Sydney beachside suburb of Manly. The eastern end of Sydney Cove was later named Bennelong Point after Woollarawarre Bennelong, a Wangal Man who was the chief of the local Eora clan.
On the morning of the 26th, Governor Phillip and a small party of marines assembled at the head of a small cove which he had chosen for the new settlement. Phillip named the settlement after Lord Sydney – the British Home Secretary who had devised the plan for the penal settlement in New South Wales. Sydney Cove is now better known as “Circular Quay”.
Some sailors raised the Union Jack on a makeshift flagpole and the marines fired a volley with their muskets. The assembled crowd gave three cheers to King George III and a toast was drunk with cups of porter (brown ale).
The 26th of January was subsequently celebrated in the 19th Century as “First Landing Day” and “Foundation Day”. It became Australia’s official national day ninety years ago in 1935.
For me, the most memorable Australia Day was the “Bicentenary of Australia” on Australia Day in 1988. It was a huge day of historical reenactments; the “Parade of Sails” which was the largest gathering of sailing vessels ever assembled in Sydney Harbour; long distance camel racing; and a massive party across the country.
Today we are especially proud to be Australian and, in the words of our national anthem:
“Advance Australia Fair!”
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