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Australia Day!
Today is “Australia Day” – Australia’s national day. 

It marks the raising of the British flag at Sydney Cove on the 26th of January 1788, and the establishment of the first European permanent settlement. 

Eighteen years earlier, our country had been claimed by the British explorer Captain James Cook on the 1st of January 1770.  He had named the eastern half of the continent “New South Wales”. 

The settlers who raised the flag at Sydney Cove 237 years ago were led by Captain Arthur Phillip and he was appointed the first Governor of New South Wales. 

Governor Phillip commanded the “First Fleet” of eleven ships which had taken 250 days to sail around from Portsmouth in England.  The eleven ships consisted of two small warships of the Royal Navy, HMS Sirius and HMAT Supply; six convict transports, Alexander, Charlotte, Friendship, Lady Penrhyn, Prince of Wales and Scarborough; and three storeships, Borrowdale, Fishburn and Golden Grove.  
The ships contained 565 officers, sailors and marines; 54 wives and children; and 1,030 convicts (of whom 767 were male, 222 were female and 41 were children).  The new settlement also had seven horses, seven cattle, 29 sheep and 74 pigs.  

The fleet had first landed on the 20th of January at Botany Bay, which is to the south.  But Phillip didn’t like the area and his further explorations discovered the magnificent harbour where the city of Sydney would later develop.

Two French ships were following the First Fleet but fortunately Governor Phillip’s forces were sufficient to deter them from causing any trouble and they departed peacefully.

Phillip also frequently met with the indigenous people who followed a paleolithic way of life in the area.  Phillip required that the colonists treat the indigenous people with respect and some of them were recruited as native guides.  The manly appearance of their warriors led to the naming of the Sydney beachside suburb of Manly.  The eastern end of Sydney Cove was later named Bennelong Point after Woollarawarre Bennelong, a Wangal Man who was the chief of the local Eora clan.  

On the morning of the 26th, Governor Phillip and a small party of marines assembled at the head of a small cove which he had chosen for the new settlement.  Phillip named the settlement after Lord Sydney – the British Home Secretary who had devised the plan for the penal settlement in New South Wales.  Sydney Cove is now better known as “Circular Quay”. 

Some sailors raised the Union Jack on a makeshift flagpole and the marines fired a volley with their muskets.  The assembled crowd gave three cheers to King George III and a toast was drunk with cups of porter (brown ale).

The 26th of January was subsequently celebrated in the 19th Century as “First Landing Day” and “Foundation Day”.  It became Australia’s official national day ninety years ago in 1935.    

For me, the most memorable Australia Day was the “Bicentenary of Australia” on Australia Day in 1988.  It was a huge day of historical reenactments; the “Parade of Sails” which was the largest gathering of sailing vessels ever assembled in Sydney Harbour; long distance camel racing; and a massive party across the country.  

Today we are especially proud to be Australian and, in the words of our national anthem: 

“Advance Australia Fair!”

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THE FORTHCOMING UNITED STATES PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

  • Writer: igrwing
    igrwing
  • Nov 7, 2024
  • 6 min read

Updated: Jan 10, 2025




Blog Post by Dr Ian Wing dated 4 November 2024

In this analysis, I will briefly focus on six areas:

  • What is likely to happen;

  • If Trump Wins;

  • If Harris Wins;

  • The effects on international foreign policy under a Harris presidency; 

  • The effects on international foreign policy under a Trump presidency; and

  • Some concluding remarks.  

WHAT IS LIKELY TO HAPPEN.    

The election is very close and very difficult to predict.  Trump and Harris are both expressing confidence but they really don’t know who will win.

The US system is not based on the highest number of national popular votes and instead each state has a separate vote.  The system provides each state a different number of electoral college votes based on the winner within each state, and these votes are then added up on 6 January to decide who will be inaugurated as the president on 20 January.  Of course, four years ago Trump attempted to stop that democratic process with the mob attack on The Capitol – and fortunately he failed in that attempt.     

The result of the election this year is too close to predict because small numbers of votes in only seven of the 50 states will decide it.  We already know how the other 43 states will vote.

Literally, as few as a thousand votes in a single state could win the entire US election for Trump or Harris. 

Despite this, it is possible that Harris or Trump will win up to seven of the “battleground” states and this may give them a so-called “landslide victory”. 

But it seems more likely that they will win three or four of the contested states each – and so the result in the Electoral College may be quite close. 

Certainly, the result may not be clear on the day of the election and it may take one or two days to finalise the counting of the votes.

My prediction continues to be that Trump is the slight favourite. 

However, if Harris wins, I will not be surprised – it is that close!

IF TRUMP WINS. 

If Trump wins he will announce his victory and Harris will concede defeat. 

Harris will do this because she believes in democracy and the importance of respecting the US system of government.  

Trump will then immediately start operating as the president even though his term of office does not begin until 20 January – he has no respect for the US system of government and will be pleased to undermine it. 

The US will enter a phase of radical change with mass firings of government officials.  Trump’s cronies – such as Jared Kushner, Steve Bannon, Elon Musk, Tucker Carlson, Michael Flynn and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. – will be placed in positions of great power.

IF HARRIS WINS. 

If Harris wins, or seems to be likely to win, Trump will announce his victory.  This is because he is a fascist who does not believe in democracy and wants to win at all costs. 

This is particularly true because Trump has numerous federal and state court cases against him (for interfering in the 2020 election, stealing classified documents, sexual crimes and financial crimes) which could cost him millions of dollars in fines and even see him sent to jail.  If he becomes president once again, he can use his control of the Supreme Court and Department of Justice to quash the federal cases and the new Supreme Court ruling on presidential immunity will protect him from the state cases.

Trump is in the same situation as Netanyahu – as an ordinary citizen he would be forced to face the court but if he is in power he will be safe!

If Trump announces his victory but it is not clear that he has really won, I expect that violence will break out – particularly in the seven contested states.  Trump will use armed mobs to stop vote counting while launching legal challenges about the results.  The objective will be to confuse the entire situation.  Trump may also encourage the US National Guard to be activated to stop the violence with the aim of demonstrating that he is in command.  Of course, in reality President Biden remains in command until 20 January.

Trump’s motto has always been to “delay, delay delay” and he will do this with a contested presidential result while his lawyers – possibly supported by the Supreme Court – try to rule that votes for Harris in contested states were fraudulent or unfair.  This is what he attempted to do in Georgia in 2020.  He would aim to tip the balance through this process sufficiently to actually take power.

Some of Trump’s supporters are even calling for a “civil war”.  I sincerely hope that this terrible outcome does not eventuate.  But Trump’s influence over his devoted followers is so strong that civil war is possible.

If Trump refuses to concede defeat it will be up to the leaders of the Republican Party to make him do so.  This is what happened in 2020 when Vice President Pence stared down Trump and enabled Biden’s inauguration. 

This time Trump has said that he will not concede defeat and his threats break the fundamental rule of democracy which is that it only works if all sides agree to respect the result.  The US faces a very serious problem indeed if Harris wins and Trump refuses to go quietly!  

HARRIS AS PRESIDENT. 

If Harris wins the presidency the foreign policy of the US will remain generally similar to that of US foreign policy under the Biden Administration.  The US will support the rules-based global order, treaties and laws (noting that the US does sometimes operate outside those laws because it is the most powerful country in the world).  The US will support Israel against Iran; Ukraine against Russia; and the countries of the Pacific against China and North Korea. The US will be predicable and normal.  And the world will not face the unpredictable behaviour and whimsical decision-making of Trump.

TRUMP AS PRESIDENT. 

If Trump wins the presidency the foreign policy of the US will be much more difficult to predict.

His domestic policies will be good for big business with lower taxes and the ending of US concerns about climate change.  He will follow through on his conservative social agenda which will please half the US population and anger the other half.  He will follow through on racist policies that operate against minorities such as blacks, Hispanics and Muslims – unless he can cut deals to avoid them.  He is expected to depart millions of undocumented people (mainly back to South America and Africa) and that will cause labour shortages (and inflation) across the US. 

He will quickly increase US oil production with the aim of pushing down global oil prices. 

The US will definitely be much more supportive of Israeli Zionism and it will probably support a large-scale invasion of Lebanon with similar results to those in Gaza. 

The US will impose severe tariffs on Chinese goods and this is predicted to lead to a serious global recession and major problems for the Chines economy (which is world’s major production house).  Trump dislikes China but he will cut deals with Xi Jinping if it suits him.   

Trump has no time for the European countries except as business opportunities.  The US will most likely threaten to leave NATO and it will almost certainly abandon Ukraine.  Trump is close to Putin and appears to be in awe of Putin’s powers.  This may lead to the victory of Russian forces (supported by the Iranians and North Koreans) in eastern Ukraine and the entire country could fall as well.  Russia could then increase its hybrid warfare against Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland; and it will be likely to seize control of the remainder of the small countries of Moldova and Georgia.

Trump views the Middle East purely as a business opportunity.  He loves Israel and will always put it first – which is why Netanyahu is praying for a Trump victory.  That said, Trump’s policies may not pose serious problems for the Arab nations.  Oil prices will likely fall – unless war breaks out which would cause them to rise.  Trump will once again be very tough on Iran and that may suit the interests of the region – unless it leads to regional warfare.   

CONCLUDING REMARKS. 

Australia is holding its breath about the election.  The current mood is that most sensible people want Harris to win for the greater good of the world.  But we know that there are many foolish American people who don’t care about the world and just selfishly want things like tax cuts for the rich or have been seduced by the many lies and false promises of Trump’s populist speeches and rallies.

Whoever wins this election, the entire world will feel its effects for the next four years. 

More disturbingly, a Trump victory could see the end of democracy as we know it in the US.  Those of us who see good in democracy find this to be a very sad possibility.  Trump could change the system to make it impossible for the Democratic Party to return to power and he could create a form of pseudo-democracy in which his friends and family succeed him.  This is a very bleak possibility but it is a real one.

The next few days will be closely watched by the people of the US and its allies – and by the leaders of the axis of China, Russia, Iran and North Korea.  Despite their weasel words, the leaders of these countries are all hoping that Trump wins because his leadership would most likely diminish the Western alliance and increase the likelihood of their victory in the coming global war.   

 
 
 

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